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Donald Trump could have been re-elected had it not been for LGBTQ voters, shows a new analysis from the American LGBTQ Nation website.
If LGBTQ people had decided to stay at home instead of voting in this year’s election, Trump would have won 289 votes from delegates and Joe Biden would have lost with 249 votes.
Although the LGBTQ population is much smaller than the cisgender and heterosexual population, LGBTQ people were divided by Biden at a much higher rate than the general population. According to a new poll of LGBTQ voters, 81% voted for Biden while 14% voted for Trump.
Applying the survey results to the states where Joe Biden is projected to win and using the Associated Press vote totals, LGBTQ Nation found that four of the states that Biden won – Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – would have chosen Trump in the absence of LGBTQ voters.
These states represent a total of 57 electoral votes, giving Trump more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.
The analysis assumes that 5% of the voting population identified themselves as LGBTQ, the same number that CNN‘s exit polls in 2016 found. This number is lower than the 7% found in the first New York Times polls in 2020, but the results of CNN’s exit polls are more in line with other polls on LGBTQ voters.
If the New York Times’ 7% number is more accurate, it would only divert the above four states further towards Trump in the absence of LGBTQ voters and would almost bring Nevada down in his favor as well.
In addition, the analysis assumes that LGBTQ people in each state voted in basically the same way, mainly because good state research on LGBTQ voters during the 2020 elections does not yet exist and may never exist. But that would only affect the bottom line if any of the four states above had a much larger population of LGBTQ Republicans than the national average.
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