With the first round of the presidential election scheduled for October 2, the financial market and investors are already moving to the scenarios of the two most positioned pre-candidates in the ranking of popularity surveys: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
According to Monitor Mercantil, the economy in the Bolsonaro government was the worst in four decades. “Among more than 170 countries, only Myanmar and Equatorial Guinea will perform less well than Brazil. Brazilian GDP is projected to grow 0.5% this year compared to last year. The result is 1.7 percentage points lower than that projected by the UN for Brazil in the previous report”, says the article.
Economist Antônio Delfim Netto granted an interview to Isto É Dinheiro and defined the economy under Bolsonaro as “regrettable and mediocre”. “Inflation has worsened dramatically. He caught the country with an inflation about 4% and will deliver with an inflation in the 10%. The federal public debt already exceeds BRL 5.5 trillion and continues to grow. This is an immense burden for the country to bear and will be a major obstacle for the next government. (…) The government doesn’t have a well-armed project. Bolsonaro doesn’t know where he is or where he wants to go. Policies have been random”.
In this context, several experts point out that, for the economy, the worst scenario would be the permanence of the Liberal Party (PL) candidate. According to economist Maílson da Nobrega, when asked by the E-Investor channel about which president would be most harmful to the financial market, he responds categorically.
“Bolsonaro’s permanence, because the market has already learned that the president is a cause of instability”, said Nóbrega. “The oldest in the market know Lula and know that he is a pragmatic politician. However, as he has a bad speech, promising to eliminate the spending ceiling, for example, this also scares investors with the idea of a new mandate“, continues.
“Still, I believe that Lula would give many signals to the market, because he has government experience and knows that he cannot start a management with the crisis of confidence in the financial market. He learned this in 2002, when he supported Fernando Henrique’s proposal to make a deal with the IMF. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I bet the market will prefer Lula to Bolsonaro if there are only these two options”, concludes Nóbrega.
InvestNews asked the opinion of economists, analysts and market agents about what can happen to the financial market in case of victory of Lula or Bolsonaro, showing a graph with the opinions before both.
Within this scenario, former President Lula met with the founder and CEO of the Board of Directors of XP Investimentos, Guilherme Benchimol, in São Paulo. The PT is moving to raise support for the presidential candidacy and tries to reduce resistance to his name between the business and the financial sector.
According to political columnist Guilherme Amado to the Metrópolis channel, the meeting between the two, combined with the Ipespe research commissioned by XP Investimentos that points to Lula’s victory in the first and second round, displeased the Bolsonarist sector.
“This week, days before the release of the last round of research, on Friday (5/6), an important businessman in the fabric sector made a point of disclosing that he had canceled his account at the brokerage firm. He called his broker and said that he had lost confidence in XP, ‘as he had lost in Folha e Globo’, in reference to media outlets that make journalistic coverage that he disagrees with”, said the columnist.
“At XP, the orientation is to maintain confidence in the technical quality of the research conducted by Ipespe, by Antônio Lavareda, a respected political scientist. And the company says it sees naturally the exit of customers, amid 3.5 million people linked to the brand”, Amado concludes.
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